Financial Special

by Paul Price & Dan Taylor

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In addition to the SPFA Times, here's a short piece from our financial sister paper about the state of Lineker's economy, a few frugal tips, and the upcoming SPFA season odds!

Seasons of complaining that the 'market' is dead seem to have been ended with a number of high profile, high cost acquisitions with Mariscal being just one example. Some scoffed at the price, but more were shocked that any team outside the known financial juggernauts had around 5m to spend on just one player. It's also been a hectic wage auction week too with a few high cost players going for well above asking wage - Pjanic anyone? Market Value for a number of players have shot up in the past few weeks, whilst others have stayed down and in some cases are still less than Acquisition Fee.

The Financial Times headed to BBC Headquarters to pick the brains of respected Economist Andrew Marr, who's response was: "Who the hell are you and how did you get into my dressing room?!" Hmm... so another avenue was explored...common sense. A bit of SI based research shows that average bank balances have risen nearly 100% in the past 4 seasons, suggesting clubs are 25% richer each year. But why? Well, most teams now have stadiums ample for catering to their supporter needs so spare cash is being spent purely on players, and perhaps most significantly, people are now getting commercial level 4. For a 4 star club this is around 25k a DAY extra! It's no longer a luxury skill to learn, but one that's necessary for long term survival.

And the effect on the transfer market? Well, MVs have only shot up for the most desirable players - those of perceived high quality, low(ish) wage and most importantly for seniors usually somewhere between the ages of 22 and 26. But is it worth paying over the odds for that special player? Financially speaking it may surprise you that it is...

Let's say your dream player is coming up in a wage auction...he's 24, has a 400k AF and asking wages of 5k. Do you offer to buy him privately for over MV at 1.4m or wait to snaffle him at wage auctions time for the less princely AF of 350k, but maybe on wages as high as 20k? Either way if you kept them for the full 2 seasons the combined cost in terms of fees and wages is virtually the same. BUT come time to sell after those 2 years and that 26 year old player still only on wages of 5k and hopefully now world class and world famous suddenly looks a much more appetising transfer prospect (even with an expected wage rise), so the real value comes in knowing that you will make much more profit from the sell on, justifying the initial outlay. If you do decide to keep him then the wage difference matters even more the longer you keep.

So don't despair at all these inflated prices, if you can afford it it's worth thinking about for some players, but if you can't afford it then there are plenty of bargains available for any player approaching 30 who you can likely keep for 5 seasons and have the bonus of probably not needing to use a lock. Certainly some of the most successful teams seem to have a combination of prime transfer targets and 'golden oldies'.

With the season up and running here's some of the odds available from Lineker's own bookie PiddlePower.com.

Last years runaway Prem title holders are the bookies favourite at 3-1, but with no-one ever retaining the title can Tensixty buck the trend? The usual suspects of Viking, Emerson Park, Tangerine and ABB are all thought of as challengers and are priced at 4-1, but with shrewd money being thrown on newcomers Samba their price has shortened to 10/3 second favourites. Of the dark horses Parkside, Hotspur, Watts, Mutt Ring and Liverpool are all getting some interest and look to be worth a flutter at 5-1. At the other end of the table perennial yo-yo club Aye Ready may have a tough season ahead, but with Fernandinho there is always a hope. White Riots are another name lauded around and despite some astute pre-season rebuilding Edible Flowers would want to be safe before the last day this time round.

The Championships look as tight as ever and the odds reflect that. Greenwich and Huyton can't be split in their league with both short 9/4s for promotion and Eliot coming in third favourite at 4-1. In Zamorano it's expected that Gooners can put last season drama out of their mind and go one better. Will the experience help? Odds on 7/4 says yes though Hornstull and Anfield Rovers may take umbrage at that! The McDermott champs could be the toughest yet with no clear favourite and bookies hedging their bets with Lilywhite, Ballaghkeen, Surreal, Wessex and Py all good shouts at 10/3. WGC may be the highest ranked, but the smart money says that inactivity could be a promotion problem.